A good forecast is predicted regarding housing trading in 2018. Most real estate experts state that this year will probably exceed the 2017 expectations as well as those of 2016. It is estimated that the real estate market will advance solidly. Thankfully, as the years go by, we are moving away from the ghost of the burst of the real estate bubble. Experts agree on the fact that during 2018, real estate deals will increase and more mortgages will be granted, hence, prices will rise. The experts who look on the bright side regard 2018 as a consolidated year in real estate activity. However, we prefer to be cautious because we cannot easily forget the great impact the burst of the real estate bubble made in our market. Some analysts share our point of view and choose to be sensible and prudent and leave consolidation for further on in the future. Be that as it may, everybody coincides on the fact that in Spain in 2018 we will have a great year regarding real estate.
A YEAR OF GROWTH
We are not at all surprised by the sound forecast of Spanish real estate during 2018. Some months ago, in this blog, we wrote about the positive growth of real estate until 2020. In that article, we mentioned that in 2018 an increase of 4,5% in prices with respect to 2017 was estimated. This was due to a growing housing demand. Some forecasts on sales result in more than an 18% growth in real estate. However, not all experts agree with this fact, such as IESE Business School, that states that this year´s growth will be below 10% because of the current instability in Catalonia. In any case, what seems clear is that housing prices will be on the rise in 2018 and some analysts declare figures between 4,5% and 4,7%. Nevertheless, some forecasts put the increase between 6% and 8%. These facts and figures added to the problem of labour instability, create a great disadvantage for young people who want to buy a house. Unfortunately, this circumstance has not changed during these years and it is still our failed subject.
IN EXPECTATIONS OF THREE FACTORS
Lastly, we want to highlight three decisive factors with regard to real estate development in Spain throughout 2018. One of these three factors is the new Mortgage Act which will come into force this year. Some experts hold an opinion that this Act will lead to a general tightening on credit conditions by banks. A second factor, which is decisive, is the growing rise in the price of land. And, the last and not least factor is the conflict that is taking place in Catalonia which has greatly influenced the drop in the Catalonian real estate sector at the end of 2017. We are now in expectations of how these three factors develop, in order to see how they have influenced the Spanish real estate sector.